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MBG Markets:PMI疲软避险需求升温,30亿大单砸

发布时间:2019-10-0410:27:40

来源: 金投机构

分类:外汇

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摘要   英美PMI双双爆雷,英镑震荡收涨(GBP/USD)      技术面:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达148个点,收涨0.30%。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平,汇价持续承压于中轨下方;日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振,MA5趋于走高,汇价运行于MA5上方;日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日缩减;日线RSI(14)于50-

  

英美PMI双双爆雷,英镑震荡收涨(GBP/USD)

技术面:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达148个点,收涨0.30%。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平,汇价持续承压于中轨下方;日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振,MA5趋于走高,汇价运行于MA5上方;日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日缩减;日线RSI(14)于50-51一线运行,运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注布林中轨位置,下方关注1.2200整数关口。

基本面:美国9月ISM非制造业PMI录得52.6,创2016年8月以来三年新低。荷兰国际银行在PMI数据公布后,下调2019年美国经济增速预期至1.3%,而此前预期是1.8%。2020年1月联邦基金利率期货合约的隐含收益率周四跌至1.435%。根据目前的有效利率1.85%计算,意味着市场预计到2019年底美联储将降息约42个基点。英国9月服务业PMI录得49.5,逊于预期及前值。经济学家称,如此大规模的商业信心丧失,近十年来仅仅在2016年脱欧公投时刻见过;英国9月的经济活动下降可能更加不祥,这表明需求在持续性减弱,而不是遭遇突然冲击;英国面临经济衰退的可能性非常高。

PMI数据持续萎靡,欧美角力暗含风险(EUR/USD)

技术面:欧元兑美元上一交易日震幅达58个点,收涨0.13%。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行,汇价持续承压于中轨下方;日线MA5,10双线趋黏合,MA5趋于走高,汇价运行于MA5上方;日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFF线上穿DEA构金叉,阳柱势能较小;日线RSI(14)于46-47一线运行,运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注1.1025,下方支撑关注1.0900。

基本面:欧元区9月服务业PMI终值报51.6,较初值下修。经济学家评论称,德国9月商业活动疲软程度创3年最低;欧元区9月经济出现停滞,调查结果显示这是自2013年中期以来最差的景象。欧洲央行管委雷恩称:当通胀预期在较长一段时间内受抑时,需要进行强烈回应,防止通胀被锚定在较低水平。WTO允许美国政府对欧洲征收75亿美元的商品关税。美国政府于周三迅速公布了征税的产品清单,其中包括对空客飞机征收10%的关税。欧盟强硬回应称,欧盟必将对此进行反击,而且已经准备好报复清单。

避险成市场主旋律,黄金多头大举进攻(XAU/USD)

技术面:黄金上一交易日震幅达238个点,收涨0.55%,上测1520位置。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行,金价持续于中轨上方运行;日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振,MA5趋于走高,金价运行于MA5上方;日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小,势能较前一交易日缩减;日线RSI(14)于52-53一线运行,运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注如下图所示趋势线位置(谨防测试趋势线不破后再度下行破前低),下方支撑关注布林中轨得失。

基本面:恐慌指数VIX指数上一交易日收跌6.78%,收盘于19.12;金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.63%,收盘于17.26;全球最大的黄金ETF基金:美国SPDR Gold Trust于10月3日增持2.93吨黄金,终结此前连续两度减持,持仓量增至923.76吨。COMEX最活跃黄金期货合约在北京时间22:00-22:02三分钟内成交量为20516手,交易合约总价值逾30亿美元,现货黄金15分钟内直线拉升近20美元。英国脱欧陷入迟滞、欧美贸易摩擦升温都刺激了黄金的避险需求,美联储降息预期的升温也料将进一步推动黄金的上涨。

风险声明及重要注意事项

交易外汇保证金和差价合约交易涉及高风险,未必适合所有投资者。阁下可能会在交易时遇到损失超过本金的情况。

以上内容属于一般性信息,并未考虑阁下的投资目标、财务状况或其他需求;也不构成任何投资或买卖金融产品的邀约。在阁下作出投资决定前,MBG Markets建议阁下寻求独立财务意见。同时,MBG Markets不承担任何因使用本汇评所引起的直接、间接或随之发生的损失和/或损害导致的责任或义务。

阁下在决定选取MBG Markets所提供的金融产品之前,请阁下仔细阅读MBG Markets的《条款与条件》及《产品披露声明》,并确

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FreeMarker template error (DEBUG mode; use RETHROW in production!): An error has occurred when reading existing sub-variable "enterpriseVip"; see cause exception! The type of the containing value was: extended_hash+string (com.sangame.uc.persistence.model.res.Enterprise wrapped into f.e.b.StringModel) ---- FTL stack trace ("~" means nesting-related): - Failed at: #if enterprise?? && enterprise.enterp... [in template "cngold/companyTemp_a/article.ftl" at line 132, column 1] ---- Java stack trace (for programmers): ---- freemarker.core._TemplateModelException: [... Exception message was already printed; see it above ...] at freemarker.ext.beans.BeanModel.get(BeanModel.java:199) at freemarker.core.Dot._eval(Dot.java:40) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:78) at freemarker.core.ExistsExpression._eval(ExistsExpression.java:45) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:78) at freemarker.core.Expression.evalToBoolean(Expression.java:124) at freemarker.core.Expression.evalToBoolean(Expression.java:110) at freemarker.core.AndExpression.evalToBoolean(AndExpression.java:32) at freemarker.core.AndExpression.evalToBoolean(AndExpression.java:32) at freemarker.core.AndExpression.evalToBoolean(AndExpression.java:32) at freemarker.core.ConditionalBlock.accept(ConditionalBlock.java:46) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:324) at freemarker.core.MixedContent.accept(MixedContent.java:54) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:324) at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:302) at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:325) at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.processTemplate(FreeMarkerView.java:367) at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.doRender(FreeMarkerView.java:284) at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.renderMergedTemplateModel(FreeMarkerView.java:234) at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.AbstractTemplateView.renderMergedOutputModel(AbstractTemplateView.java:167) at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.AbstractView.render(AbstractView.java:303) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.render(DispatcherServlet.java:1243) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.processDispatchResult(DispatcherServlet.java:1027) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:971) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:893) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:968) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doGet(FrameworkServlet.java:859) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:622) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:844) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:729) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:292) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:207) at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:240) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:207) at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:121) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:240) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:207) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:212) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:94) at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:504) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:141) at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:79) at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:620) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:88) at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:502) at org.apache.coyote.http11.AbstractHttp11Processor.process(AbstractHttp11Processor.java:1132) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$AbstractConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:684) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.AprEndpoint$SocketWithOptionsProcessor.run(AprEndpoint.java:2458) at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1142) at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:617) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61) at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:745) Caused by: java.lang.reflect.InvocationTargetException at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor560.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at freemarker.ext.beans.BeansWrapper.invokeMethod(BeansWrapper.java:1458) at freemarker.ext.beans.BeanModel.invokeThroughDescriptor(BeanModel.java:255) at freemarker.ext.beans.BeanModel.get(BeanModel.java:159) ... 53 more Caused by: com.sangame.sow.orm.exceptions.LazyLoadException: java.lang.reflect.InvocationTargetException at com.sangame.uc.utils.MapperXmemcachedUtils.find(MapperXmemcachedUtils.java:70) at com.sangame.uc.persistence.model.res.Enterprise.getEnterpriseVip(Enterprise.java:257) ... 59 more Caused by: java.lang.reflect.InvocationTargetException at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor107.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at com.sangame.uc.utils.MapperXmemcachedUtils.find(MapperXmemcachedUtils.java:62) ... 60 more Caused by: org.mybatis.spring.MyBatisSystemException: nested exception is org.apache.ibatis.exceptions.PersistenceException: ### Error querying database. Cause: org.springframework.jdbc.CannotGetJdbcConnectionException: Could not get JDBC Connection; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. ### The error may exist in com/sangame/uc/persistence/mapper/member/MemberVipMapper.xml ### The error may involve com.sangame.uc.persistence.mapper.member.MemberVipMapper.findEnterpriseVipByMemberId ### The error occurred while executing a query ### Cause: org.springframework.jdbc.CannotGetJdbcConnectionException: Could not get JDBC Connection; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. at org.mybatis.spring.MyBatisExceptionTranslator.translateExceptionIfPossible(MyBatisExceptionTranslator.java:79) at org.mybatis.spring.SqlSessionTemplate$SqlSessionInterceptor.invoke(SqlSessionTemplate.java:447) at com.sun.proxy.$Proxy16.selectList(Unknown Source) at org.mybatis.spring.SqlSessionTemplate.selectList(SqlSessionTemplate.java:231) at org.apache.ibatis.binding.MapperMethod.executeForMany(MapperMethod.java:128) at org.apache.ibatis.binding.MapperMethod.execute(MapperMethod.java:68) at org.apache.ibatis.binding.MapperProxy.invoke(MapperProxy.java:53) at com.sun.proxy.$Proxy30.findEnterpriseVipByMemberId(Unknown Source) ... 64 more Caused by: org.apache.ibatis.exceptions.PersistenceException: ### Error querying database. Cause: org.springframework.jdbc.CannotGetJdbcConnectionException: Could not get JDBC Connection; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. ### The error may exist in com/sangame/uc/persistence/mapper/member/MemberVipMapper.xml ### The error may involve com.sangame.uc.persistence.mapper.member.MemberVipMapper.findEnterpriseVipByMemberId ### The error occurred while executing a query ### Cause: org.springframework.jdbc.CannotGetJdbcConnectionException: Could not get JDBC Connection; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. at org.apache.ibatis.exceptions.ExceptionFactory.wrapException(ExceptionFactory.java:30) at org.apache.ibatis.session.defaults.DefaultSqlSession.selectList(DefaultSqlSession.java:150) at org.apache.ibatis.session.defaults.DefaultSqlSession.selectList(DefaultSqlSession.java:141) at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor41.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at org.mybatis.spring.SqlSessionTemplate$SqlSessionInterceptor.invoke(SqlSessionTemplate.java:434) ... 70 more Caused by: org.springframework.jdbc.CannotGetJdbcConnectionException: Could not get JDBC Connection; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. at org.springframework.jdbc.datasource.DataSourceUtils.getConnection(DataSourceUtils.java:80) at org.mybatis.spring.transaction.SpringManagedTransaction.openConnection(SpringManagedTransaction.java:84) at org.mybatis.spring.transaction.SpringManagedTransaction.getConnection(SpringManagedTransaction.java:70) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.BaseExecutor.getConnection(BaseExecutor.java:337) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.SimpleExecutor.prepareStatement(SimpleExecutor.java:84) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.SimpleExecutor.doQuery(SimpleExecutor.java:62) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.BaseExecutor.queryFromDatabase(BaseExecutor.java:325) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.BaseExecutor.query(BaseExecutor.java:156) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.CachingExecutor.query(CachingExecutor.java:109) at org.apache.ibatis.executor.CachingExecutor.query(CachingExecutor.java:83) at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor37.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at org.apache.ibatis.plugin.Invocation.proceed(Invocation.java:49) at com.sangame.uc.enterprise.web.interceptor.MybatisInterceptor.intercept(MybatisInterceptor.java:52) at org.apache.ibatis.plugin.Plugin.invoke(Plugin.java:61) at com.sun.proxy.$Proxy129.query(Unknown Source) at org.apache.ibatis.session.defaults.DefaultSqlSession.selectList(DefaultSqlSession.java:148) ... 75 more Caused by: java.sql.SQLException: An attempt by a client to checkout a Connection has timed out. at com.mchange.v2.sql.SqlUtils.toSQLException(SqlUtils.java:106) at com.mchange.v2.sql.SqlUtils.toSQLException(SqlUtils.java:65) at com.mchange.v2.c3p0.impl.C3P0PooledConnectionPool.checkoutPooledConnection(C3P0PooledConnectionPool.java:527) at com.mchange.v2.c3p0.impl.AbstractPoolBackedDataSource.getConnection(AbstractPoolBackedDataSource.java:128) at org.springframework.jdbc.datasource.DataSourceUtils.doGetConnection(DataSourceUtils.java:111) at org.springframework.jdbc.datasource.DataSourceUtils.getConnection(DataSourceUtils.java:77) ... 92 more Caused by: com.mchange.v2.resourcepool.TimeoutException: A client timed out while waiting to acquire a resource from com.mchange.v2.resourcepool.BasicResourcePool@411f073e -- timeout at awaitAvailable() at com.mchange.v2.resourcepool.BasicResourcePool.awaitAvailable(BasicResourcePool.java:1317) at com.mchange.v2.resourcepool.BasicResourcePool.prelimCheckoutResource(BasicResourcePool.java:557) at com.mchange.v2.resourcepool.BasicResourcePool.checkoutResource(BasicResourcePool.java:477) at com.mchange.v2.c3p0.impl.C3P0PooledConnectionPool.checkoutPooledConnection(C3P0PooledConnectionPool.java:525) ... 95 more